BENGAL : A NEW TACK BY YAHYA
A FOREIGN REPORT :
Published by THE ECONOMIST NEWSPAPER LIMITED
25 St. James Street London, Swi 1215 , September 23, 1971
The first faint signs of what may be a retreat by President Yahya Khan of Pakistan over the Bengal question have begun to surface just as the drift toward another Indo Pakistani war looked irreversible. Reports from wholly different quarters indicate that Yahya is contemplating a negotiation with the captive Sheikh Mujibur Rahman to establish an autonomous East Bengal within a unitary Pakistan state. By general consent Mujib is the only man with the credibility and authority to lead the embittered East Bengali people back to some semblance of normality.
His secret trial in or near Islamabad is still proceeding, but at a lower pace. According to authoritative sources, President Yahya recognises that, having branded Mujib as a "traitor" he himself cannot personally conduct the negotiations ; the suggestion is, therefore, that he may soon set up a civilian government in Islamabad with the specific mission of coming to terms with the prisoner from Bengal. The precondition would be, of course, an acknowledgement from Mujib and his banned Awami League that an East Bengal with maximum autonomy would still be part of a unitary Pakistan.
These reports emanate from pro Pakistan as well as from anti-Pakistan sources. From both sides it is acknowledged that such a new tack would mark a tremendous retreat by Yahya. But his only alternative to some sort of deal with Mujib is, almost certainly, a war with India that could be totally disastrous.
The reasoning of these diverse authorities runs roughly as follows :
A confrontation is looming in the post-monsoon period " (late October or early November) between West Pakistani troops in East Bengal and the Bangladesh rebels If the West Pakistanis look like crushing the insurgents, Mrs. Gandhi’s government will be under great pressure first to recognize, then to aid the rebels and, in the last resort, to intervene. This, as Yahya has said, would be a rebellious.
(x) If the rebels looked like holding their own, there would be just as much pressure on the Indian government to recognize them, because they would have satisfied the normal criterion for recognition in that they would be exercising effective control over their territory. In such a situation, too, Yahya would be bound to challenge India, if he lives up to his pledges.
Many of Yahya’s friends and allies from Peking, through Teheran, to Washington have been urging him quietly to settle with Mujib, if he can. The Shah of Iran, for instance, left Yahya in no doubt, when the Pakistan leader recently visited Teheran, that Pakistan could not count on military aid from the Iranians if it got into hostilities with India. Even China is believed to have given him the same kind of advice; for Peking this would be the wrong war, against the wrong enemy, at the wrong time, and in the wrong place, to coin a phrase.
As if to add insult to injury, two political parties considered loyal to Islamabad have just said they may not participate in the new East Pakistani elections due to begin on November 25. Nurul Amin, President of the Pakistan Democratic Party, has said that the election is premature, and has asked for at least a one-month deferment of voting. The Pakistan Muslim League is taking a similar line. Amin was the only national assembly man out of 169 elected in East Pakistan last December who was not a sup¬porter of Mujib’s Awami League.
The next few weeks will therefore be crucial for Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Indian authorities, with about eight mil-lion refugees on their hands, fear that this number may well be doubled by the end of the year, if the military should resume their tough measures to root out rebel forces. Once the onset of winter halts the supply of arms from China to Pakistan, the Indians should have no military reason to fear the outcome of a conflict with their neighbor.
Published by THE ECONOMIST NEWSPAPER LIMITED
25 St. James Street London, Swi 1215 , September 23, 1971
The first faint signs of what may be a retreat by President Yahya Khan of Pakistan over the Bengal question have begun to surface just as the drift toward another Indo Pakistani war looked irreversible. Reports from wholly different quarters indicate that Yahya is contemplating a negotiation with the captive Sheikh Mujibur Rahman to establish an autonomous East Bengal within a unitary Pakistan state. By general consent Mujib is the only man with the credibility and authority to lead the embittered East Bengali people back to some semblance of normality.
His secret trial in or near Islamabad is still proceeding, but at a lower pace. According to authoritative sources, President Yahya recognises that, having branded Mujib as a "traitor" he himself cannot personally conduct the negotiations ; the suggestion is, therefore, that he may soon set up a civilian government in Islamabad with the specific mission of coming to terms with the prisoner from Bengal. The precondition would be, of course, an acknowledgement from Mujib and his banned Awami League that an East Bengal with maximum autonomy would still be part of a unitary Pakistan.
These reports emanate from pro Pakistan as well as from anti-Pakistan sources. From both sides it is acknowledged that such a new tack would mark a tremendous retreat by Yahya. But his only alternative to some sort of deal with Mujib is, almost certainly, a war with India that could be totally disastrous.
The reasoning of these diverse authorities runs roughly as follows :
A confrontation is looming in the post-monsoon period " (late October or early November) between West Pakistani troops in East Bengal and the Bangladesh rebels If the West Pakistanis look like crushing the insurgents, Mrs. Gandhi’s government will be under great pressure first to recognize, then to aid the rebels and, in the last resort, to intervene. This, as Yahya has said, would be a rebellious.
(x) If the rebels looked like holding their own, there would be just as much pressure on the Indian government to recognize them, because they would have satisfied the normal criterion for recognition in that they would be exercising effective control over their territory. In such a situation, too, Yahya would be bound to challenge India, if he lives up to his pledges.
Many of Yahya’s friends and allies from Peking, through Teheran, to Washington have been urging him quietly to settle with Mujib, if he can. The Shah of Iran, for instance, left Yahya in no doubt, when the Pakistan leader recently visited Teheran, that Pakistan could not count on military aid from the Iranians if it got into hostilities with India. Even China is believed to have given him the same kind of advice; for Peking this would be the wrong war, against the wrong enemy, at the wrong time, and in the wrong place, to coin a phrase.
As if to add insult to injury, two political parties considered loyal to Islamabad have just said they may not participate in the new East Pakistani elections due to begin on November 25. Nurul Amin, President of the Pakistan Democratic Party, has said that the election is premature, and has asked for at least a one-month deferment of voting. The Pakistan Muslim League is taking a similar line. Amin was the only national assembly man out of 169 elected in East Pakistan last December who was not a sup¬porter of Mujib’s Awami League.
The next few weeks will therefore be crucial for Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Indian authorities, with about eight mil-lion refugees on their hands, fear that this number may well be doubled by the end of the year, if the military should resume their tough measures to root out rebel forces. Once the onset of winter halts the supply of arms from China to Pakistan, the Indians should have no military reason to fear the outcome of a conflict with their neighbor.
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