A WAR WAITING TO HAPPEN
NEWSWEEK November 8, 1971
In their 24 years as independent nations, India and1 Pakistan has shown a boundless capacity for squabbling with each other. They have argued endlessly over Kashmir and bit of West land called the Rann of Katch, and six years ago they plunged into a brief but bloody war. “These two countries” remarked one Western diplomat, “have hardly ever been genuinely at peace”. And certainly they were not last week. Along 3,000 miles of border, Indian and Pakistani troops massed in menacing formations. Most observers felt that the current travels of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who is due in the U.S. this week ruled out the likelihood that India would go to war for the moment. But there remained the ominous feeling in both nations that, sooner or later, they would stumble into conflict.
Certainly, announcement, emanating from Pakistan did nothing to cool emotions. Indicating that Indians for unprovoked artillery and mortar attacks that allegedly took the lives of some 150 civilians in East Pakistan. The Govt, of Pakistan (Mohd. Yahya Khan) maintained that its forces had killed nearly 600 ‘Indian troops and agents’ in two days. But observers noted that many of the shells blamed for the civilian deaths came from 2 inch mortars, short range guns, that could not have been fired from India. And they further pointed out that Pakistan uses the terms “Indian Agents” to refer to the Bengali rebels in East Pakistan who have been fighting the Government since April. In India, the claims were much more modest; New Delhi cited one direct clash with Pakistan attackers and a mortar barrage that killed six •civilians. “Personally” said one American observer in India, “I think Pakistan’s reports are basically designed to bolster morale at home to stir up a war frenzy.”
In much of Pakistan, that seemed unnecessary, News¬papers creamed with headlines such as CONCERTED DELHI BID TO UNDO PAKISTAN AND CRUSH INDIA- Stickers were slapped on Honda motor-cycle seats and even the blin¬ders of horses pulling hansom cabs. “India is playing with fire and she will get burned,” a Pakistani Air Force officer told News Week’s senior editor Renaud Borchgrave. “This time, we will take a major chunk of her territory.” But other voices, including that of President Yahya himself, were less than enthusiastic about going to war. And near Pakistan’s Western border with India flag waving was rare, for there, nine Pakistani divisions were overwhelmingly out- manned by opposing Indian forces. Last week News Week’s Maynard Parker visited India’s border forces and found a mood of confidence, almost anticipation.
Parker’s Report
Swathed in the smoky sunlight Autumn, the Punjab is magnificent, wild golden country, while peasants cut the last of the wheat, lime and turquoise birds shimmer in the sky like tiny jewels. But the atmosphere is not exclusively one of pastoral tranquillity. For the land bristles with Indian soldiers—turbaned Sikhs, towering Punjabis, dark-skinned, wiry Gurkhas and it is a land wearing the menacing mask of wartime camouflage. Near Amritsar, the largest Indian town near the border with Pakistan, a stack of hay suddenly starts to move, giving away the fact it is a disguised tank, and a glance behind a mudbarrier reveals a 106 m.m. anti¬tank gun and its crew. Soldiers in civilian clothes prowl the border looking for infiltrators, and every bridge worthy of name is equipped with dynamite charges in case it must be blown up to stop advancing Pakistanis “War is coming for sure,” a Sikh sergeant said matter of factually. “We just don’t know when.”
The Indians not only are convinced they will have a war, -they are aggressively confident they will win it and cripple Pakistan into the bargain. “This time there will be no stop¬ping us the border,” one Major told me. “The Pakistanis might be able to take the offensive in one place, but we would iake it in five. And this time we will stay. It would mean the end for them". To carry their message that the people of the Punjab will be safe, the Indian army has ringed important border towns in Steel, massing scores of tanks on their outskirts. And teams of drum-beating soldiers march along country roads and into village squares repeating their belligerent boast: “All the fighting will be done in Pakistan. .Not a single shell will fall here.”
Communication
Yet, bellicose as the Indians are the border itself is be musingly peaceful. At the crossing point near Ferozpore, a squad of Pakistan frontier rangers jokes with the Indian guards, and when no officers are looking, the Indians trade the Pakistanis sugar for cigarettes. Border traffic—whether refugees seeking asylum or trucks loaded with pomegranates proceeds as usual, and the Indian customs inspector complains that the young Pakistani immigrants “are only interested in hashish.” But the communication between these would-be enemies, is not all furtive or commercial. Major Diljit Singh, Deputy Commander of the Indian Border Security Forces, meets Pakistanis regularly at the border and openly has tea with them. “They tell me, Sahib, we don’t want war,” Singh said. “Let them fight in East Pakistan. Let us not have war here.” That wish, however, may not be granted, War is inevitable,” said a seasoned Western diplomat in New Delhi, “It is only a matter of time.”
A Talk With Pakistan’s President Yahya Khan
With his country in the midst of one crisis the guerrilla rebellion in East Pakistan—and on the verge of another— war with India—Pakistan’s President Mohammad Yahya gave an interview last week to Newsweek’s senior editor Amaud de Borchgrave. In their conversation, President Yahya spelled out his position on some of the crucial issues facing his country and India. Below, excerpts from Yahya’s. remarks:
On Hie Likelihood Of War
I have no reason to tell you war is not imminent because it is. The Indians are already at war with us, and the only reason there is no general confrontation is that we are not hitting back. We are still exercising maximum restraint despite growing provocation. The Indians are lobbing from 150 to 3,000 artillery and mortar shells across East Pakistan
borders every 24 hours (The East Pakistani Guerrillas)
are destroying bridges, electric pylons, even a food ship the other day. The Indians have set up 23 guerrilla training camps.... Civil populations have been evacuated from their border areas, their Defence Minister is threatening us every day If the Indians escalate with a view to capturing territory and installing a puppet Bangladesh regime, that will be war.
On India’s Military Advantages
How can our army fight and win against an (Indian army that is five times its size ? It would be military lunacy for me to take them on. But if we are attacked, we will fight back. (The Indian) have a big war machine that is self- sufficient in many respects. If they can lob over 3,000 shells in a day, that means they have plenty of ammunition on hand. It’s a luxury to our army cannot afford.
On Chinese Aid To Pakistan
The Chinese will not tolerate an attack on Pakistan. We will get all the weapons and ammunition we need, (every) assistance) short of physical intervention. We get some things free and pay for others. But Chinese terms are so easy 25-year credit, interest free. Last year when I was in Peking I negotiated 200 million worth of economic aid for our Five-Year Plan with no interest.
On Negotiations
I don’t want to escalate. I’m doing my best to defuse the situation. I have repeatedly accepted U Thant’s proposals for International Observers to observe any thing they wish, including how we are resettling refugees who come back (to East Pakistan) I cannot accept the figures that there are & million East Pakistani—even it will not be 4 million after in- partial observers, through counting. Whatever, the figure, I will accept anyone who left after March as a Pakistani national and take him back. This can only be controlled by the United Nations.
On The Future Of Bangladesh
No one ever treated the Bengalis fairly. We too have made mistake and by “we” I also mean East Pakistanis who have been our presidents and premiers since independence. East Pakistan was down and out, and we did not pay sufficient attention to its development. We are now trying to make up for last time. The new constitution will be promulgated on December 20. They are 1,000 miles away so it is only nor¬mal that they enjoy maximum autonomy and handle their own affairs. That means every thing except defence, foreign affairs and taxation.
On Sheikh Mujibur Rahman
Many people might not believe me, but I think if he (Mujib, the Bengali leader currently on trial for treason) went back (to East Pakistan) he would be killed by his own people who hold him responsible for all the suffering. In any case, it is an academic question. He had been discussing internal autonomy with me for two years and went back on his word. He organized and led an armed rebellion against the state. There was no alternative but to suppress the rebellion. Any other government would have done the same thing. How can I now call that man back and negotiate with him? He is charged with waging war against the state and subverting the loyalty of the army. He is being defended by A.K. Brohi who is the best and most respected lawyer in the country. Brohi would not have taken the case if he thought there was going to be any hanky in the military court.
I did not shoot Mujib first and try him later ni some government are prone to do... .1 cannot release him on n whim. It'f one hell of a responsibility. But if the nation demands his release, I will do it.
On An Independent Bangladesh
The worst losers will be the Indians themselves. East Bengal and Assam will soon join in, and that will be the beginning of the break up of the Indian Union itself. I hope to God this woman (Mrs. Gandhi) understands.
In their 24 years as independent nations, India and1 Pakistan has shown a boundless capacity for squabbling with each other. They have argued endlessly over Kashmir and bit of West land called the Rann of Katch, and six years ago they plunged into a brief but bloody war. “These two countries” remarked one Western diplomat, “have hardly ever been genuinely at peace”. And certainly they were not last week. Along 3,000 miles of border, Indian and Pakistani troops massed in menacing formations. Most observers felt that the current travels of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who is due in the U.S. this week ruled out the likelihood that India would go to war for the moment. But there remained the ominous feeling in both nations that, sooner or later, they would stumble into conflict.
Certainly, announcement, emanating from Pakistan did nothing to cool emotions. Indicating that Indians for unprovoked artillery and mortar attacks that allegedly took the lives of some 150 civilians in East Pakistan. The Govt, of Pakistan (Mohd. Yahya Khan) maintained that its forces had killed nearly 600 ‘Indian troops and agents’ in two days. But observers noted that many of the shells blamed for the civilian deaths came from 2 inch mortars, short range guns, that could not have been fired from India. And they further pointed out that Pakistan uses the terms “Indian Agents” to refer to the Bengali rebels in East Pakistan who have been fighting the Government since April. In India, the claims were much more modest; New Delhi cited one direct clash with Pakistan attackers and a mortar barrage that killed six •civilians. “Personally” said one American observer in India, “I think Pakistan’s reports are basically designed to bolster morale at home to stir up a war frenzy.”
In much of Pakistan, that seemed unnecessary, News¬papers creamed with headlines such as CONCERTED DELHI BID TO UNDO PAKISTAN AND CRUSH INDIA- Stickers were slapped on Honda motor-cycle seats and even the blin¬ders of horses pulling hansom cabs. “India is playing with fire and she will get burned,” a Pakistani Air Force officer told News Week’s senior editor Renaud Borchgrave. “This time, we will take a major chunk of her territory.” But other voices, including that of President Yahya himself, were less than enthusiastic about going to war. And near Pakistan’s Western border with India flag waving was rare, for there, nine Pakistani divisions were overwhelmingly out- manned by opposing Indian forces. Last week News Week’s Maynard Parker visited India’s border forces and found a mood of confidence, almost anticipation.
Parker’s Report
Swathed in the smoky sunlight Autumn, the Punjab is magnificent, wild golden country, while peasants cut the last of the wheat, lime and turquoise birds shimmer in the sky like tiny jewels. But the atmosphere is not exclusively one of pastoral tranquillity. For the land bristles with Indian soldiers—turbaned Sikhs, towering Punjabis, dark-skinned, wiry Gurkhas and it is a land wearing the menacing mask of wartime camouflage. Near Amritsar, the largest Indian town near the border with Pakistan, a stack of hay suddenly starts to move, giving away the fact it is a disguised tank, and a glance behind a mudbarrier reveals a 106 m.m. anti¬tank gun and its crew. Soldiers in civilian clothes prowl the border looking for infiltrators, and every bridge worthy of name is equipped with dynamite charges in case it must be blown up to stop advancing Pakistanis “War is coming for sure,” a Sikh sergeant said matter of factually. “We just don’t know when.”
The Indians not only are convinced they will have a war, -they are aggressively confident they will win it and cripple Pakistan into the bargain. “This time there will be no stop¬ping us the border,” one Major told me. “The Pakistanis might be able to take the offensive in one place, but we would iake it in five. And this time we will stay. It would mean the end for them". To carry their message that the people of the Punjab will be safe, the Indian army has ringed important border towns in Steel, massing scores of tanks on their outskirts. And teams of drum-beating soldiers march along country roads and into village squares repeating their belligerent boast: “All the fighting will be done in Pakistan. .Not a single shell will fall here.”
Communication
Yet, bellicose as the Indians are the border itself is be musingly peaceful. At the crossing point near Ferozpore, a squad of Pakistan frontier rangers jokes with the Indian guards, and when no officers are looking, the Indians trade the Pakistanis sugar for cigarettes. Border traffic—whether refugees seeking asylum or trucks loaded with pomegranates proceeds as usual, and the Indian customs inspector complains that the young Pakistani immigrants “are only interested in hashish.” But the communication between these would-be enemies, is not all furtive or commercial. Major Diljit Singh, Deputy Commander of the Indian Border Security Forces, meets Pakistanis regularly at the border and openly has tea with them. “They tell me, Sahib, we don’t want war,” Singh said. “Let them fight in East Pakistan. Let us not have war here.” That wish, however, may not be granted, War is inevitable,” said a seasoned Western diplomat in New Delhi, “It is only a matter of time.”
A Talk With Pakistan’s President Yahya Khan
With his country in the midst of one crisis the guerrilla rebellion in East Pakistan—and on the verge of another— war with India—Pakistan’s President Mohammad Yahya gave an interview last week to Newsweek’s senior editor Amaud de Borchgrave. In their conversation, President Yahya spelled out his position on some of the crucial issues facing his country and India. Below, excerpts from Yahya’s. remarks:
On Hie Likelihood Of War
I have no reason to tell you war is not imminent because it is. The Indians are already at war with us, and the only reason there is no general confrontation is that we are not hitting back. We are still exercising maximum restraint despite growing provocation. The Indians are lobbing from 150 to 3,000 artillery and mortar shells across East Pakistan
borders every 24 hours (The East Pakistani Guerrillas)
are destroying bridges, electric pylons, even a food ship the other day. The Indians have set up 23 guerrilla training camps.... Civil populations have been evacuated from their border areas, their Defence Minister is threatening us every day If the Indians escalate with a view to capturing territory and installing a puppet Bangladesh regime, that will be war.
On India’s Military Advantages
How can our army fight and win against an (Indian army that is five times its size ? It would be military lunacy for me to take them on. But if we are attacked, we will fight back. (The Indian) have a big war machine that is self- sufficient in many respects. If they can lob over 3,000 shells in a day, that means they have plenty of ammunition on hand. It’s a luxury to our army cannot afford.
On Chinese Aid To Pakistan
The Chinese will not tolerate an attack on Pakistan. We will get all the weapons and ammunition we need, (every) assistance) short of physical intervention. We get some things free and pay for others. But Chinese terms are so easy 25-year credit, interest free. Last year when I was in Peking I negotiated 200 million worth of economic aid for our Five-Year Plan with no interest.
On Negotiations
I don’t want to escalate. I’m doing my best to defuse the situation. I have repeatedly accepted U Thant’s proposals for International Observers to observe any thing they wish, including how we are resettling refugees who come back (to East Pakistan) I cannot accept the figures that there are & million East Pakistani—even it will not be 4 million after in- partial observers, through counting. Whatever, the figure, I will accept anyone who left after March as a Pakistani national and take him back. This can only be controlled by the United Nations.
On The Future Of Bangladesh
No one ever treated the Bengalis fairly. We too have made mistake and by “we” I also mean East Pakistanis who have been our presidents and premiers since independence. East Pakistan was down and out, and we did not pay sufficient attention to its development. We are now trying to make up for last time. The new constitution will be promulgated on December 20. They are 1,000 miles away so it is only nor¬mal that they enjoy maximum autonomy and handle their own affairs. That means every thing except defence, foreign affairs and taxation.
On Sheikh Mujibur Rahman
Many people might not believe me, but I think if he (Mujib, the Bengali leader currently on trial for treason) went back (to East Pakistan) he would be killed by his own people who hold him responsible for all the suffering. In any case, it is an academic question. He had been discussing internal autonomy with me for two years and went back on his word. He organized and led an armed rebellion against the state. There was no alternative but to suppress the rebellion. Any other government would have done the same thing. How can I now call that man back and negotiate with him? He is charged with waging war against the state and subverting the loyalty of the army. He is being defended by A.K. Brohi who is the best and most respected lawyer in the country. Brohi would not have taken the case if he thought there was going to be any hanky in the military court.
I did not shoot Mujib first and try him later ni some government are prone to do... .1 cannot release him on n whim. It'f one hell of a responsibility. But if the nation demands his release, I will do it.
On An Independent Bangladesh
The worst losers will be the Indians themselves. East Bengal and Assam will soon join in, and that will be the beginning of the break up of the Indian Union itself. I hope to God this woman (Mrs. Gandhi) understands.
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